Negotiating game of chicken could get ugly

Beyond the sliding-scale interpretation of an allegedly prickly confrontation between Dwyane Wade and David Stern, the NBA lockout's big weekend of negotiation left us with some important items to ponder.
 
For example, we've been invited to embrace the notion that progress is being made. A bitter, simultaneous truth -- the degree of this truth depends on which tweet-happy, spin apprentice you've been following -- reminds us any progress is relative to the vast, original divide separating each side.

Saturday's chattering included player-owner discussions, player-player pep rallies, owner-owner think tanks and any number of exchanges involving lawyers, writers and those already mentioned. When it was over, the only notion we really seem capable of sinking our teeth into was contributed by commissioner Stern:
 
"We're not near anything."
 
Not to be outdone in relaying the gravity of their predicament was NBA Players' Union executive director Billy Hunter: "We're still miles apart."
 
In the closest thing to a consensus generated by those reporters working this story in New York is the notion that the official wiping out of at least part of the regular-season schedule could happen this week.
 
And the elimination of games -- even if a portion of the season is salvaged -- should be considered a big deal.
 
According to those stationed along the front lines of the lockout talks, the owners might be more committed to burning an entire season if a significant chunk must be sacrificed. In for a dime, in for a dollar. Sure, this could be negotiating rhetoric served by Stern, who probably wouldn't betray any of his strategic flow unless you call him "David" or "Dave." Prevailing wisdom (a dangerous word) holds that any perceived owner concessions would become less attractive to the players commensurate with the continued loss of real games.
 
That's a potentially harsh game of chicken.
 
Aside from financial hits to players and owners, the loss of games will have significant impact on those who work on NBA game nights. The list of those affected would include (but not be limited to) concession vendors, security staff and ushers. The loss of entire season would result in a nasty economic hit for a lot of people at an already difficult time. Collateral monetary damage is part of the cost of doing business and bargaining new contracts in far more important landscapes than pro sports; that reality doesn't make this any less painful.
 
It also has been estimated that wiping out an entire season would add up to more than $1 billion in lost revenue for NBA arenas, based on an annual audit numbers supplied by the league and the players' union. The financial wallop would be even worse at Staples Center in Los Angeles, where 101 of the venue's 246 events (43 percent) in 2009 featured the Lakers or Clippers.
 
With the Clippers respectfully dragged into this doom-examining fray, let's now move to why the loss of games -- even if the season is condensed as it was following the lockout of '98-'99 -- would be something nice to avoid.
 
OK, there are those of you who don't care about losing games in November, December and even January. Nothing really matters until the playoffs or the closing kick to reach them, right?
 
Well, while you're probably one of the crusty observers who whines about the lack of traveling calls or increased isolation plays, then spends months tracking the NBA Draft, please note the potential for some true on-court ugly.
 
Due to circumstances beyond my control, I covered the Clippers for my L.A.-area newspaper immediately following the last lockout. Witnessing the Clips on a nightly basis has to be quite a bit like being assigned the lethal injection beat. They began the abbreviated season (and Chris Ford era) with 17 losses in a row. Being around them made it difficult to accurately judge how the level of play had fallen around the league.
 
Two of the team's starters returned from the lockout with body fat percentages higher than their eventual scoring averages. Third-string center Keith Closs showed up looking like the only player in the league who lost weight during the lockout. Eventual starting center Michael Olowokandi, selected by the Clips with the first overall pick in the previous draft, was playing in Europe during the lockout and missed their brief training camp.
 
It was a hay ride with lit matches.
 
Anyway, thanks to statistical evidence unwittingly supplied by basketball-reference.com, we know the entire league was a bit off in the 50-game season. The average field-goal percentage was 43.7 percent, down from a salty 45 the season prior and the 44.9 turned in the following campaign. That doesn't seem like much, but as someone sensitive to of the plight of those required to repaint the rims, I can tell you it is.
 
Turnovers committed took a nice upward skip, too, helping influence an offensive-efficiency average of 102.2 that was a three damning points lower than one season before, and more than two points shy of what the league mustered in 1999-2000.
 
Could/would it be that difficult to watch again? Well, there is reason for relative optimism. Most of the league keeps itself a lot more active in the offseason now, hiring basketball skill sharpies and/or performance trainers. Several union members probably will follow through on early overtures and go the Olowokandi route -- I'm referring to playing abroad, not becoming a colossal disappointment back in the NBA.
 
Unfortunately, working with trainers and skill coaches will do very little for developing timing within a team concept. Another good sign, however, is the player-run practices that have been reported in recent weeks. But as the lockout rolls along and players seek alternative employment, the potential for any sniff of cohesion-maintaining practices should diminish ... or even disappear.
 
The players figure to be in better physical shape this time.
 
So we have that to look forward to.